?*************************************************************************************************************** ?** Replication Data for: Rational Voting Behavior Accounting for Heterogeneous Ballots in British Elections ?** Ingrid Mauerer, Annemarie Walter ?*************************************************************************************************************** Related Publication: Mauerer, I. & Walter, A. (2024). "Rational Voting Behaviour Accounting for Heterogeneous Ballots in British Elections". Statistical Modelling. OnlineFirst: 1–17. https://doi.org/10.1177/1471082X241272346 |-> LOAD ; FILE = "Data.lpj" $ Project file contained 84456 observations. ?******************************************************************* ? * Standardization of party-specific Variables win_ and lr_ ?******************************************************************* |-> CREATE ; stdwin = (win_ - Xbr(win_)) / Sdv(win_) $ |-> CREATE ; stdlr = (lr_ - Xbr(lr_)) / Sdv(lr_) $ |-> Sample; All$ ?* N of cases: 16 453 ?* N of obs.: 84 456 ?*************************************************************************************** ?* Three-Party Setting: LAB, CONS, LD ?*************************************************************************************** ?**************************************** ?* Reject obs. for UKIP, Greens, SNP ?**************************************** |-> reject; party#1.& party#2.&party#3$ |-> reject; vote#1.& vote#2.&vote#3$ |-> * N obs: 35343 * N cases: 11781 ?**************************************** ?* Generic Specification ?**************************************** |-> NLOGIT ;lhs = chosen; Choices = LAB, CONS, LD; Model: U(LAB) = ascl + blr*stdlr + bwin*stdwin + lwork*work + lmiddle*middle + lage*age + lgender*gender + lunion*union + leduc*educ + lown*own U(CONS) = blr*stdlr + bwin*stdwin / U(LD) = ascld + blr*stdlr + bwin*stdwin + ldwork*work + ldmiddle*middle + ldage*age + ldgender*gender + ldunion*union + ldeduc*educ + ldown*own $ Normal exit: 7 iterations. Status=0, F= 5287.876 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discrete choice (multinomial logit) model Dependent variable Choice Log likelihood function -5287.87573 Estimation based on N = 11781, K = 18 Inf.Cr.AIC = 10611.8 AIC/N = .901 Model estimated: Apr 14, 2024, 17:20:44 R2=1-LogL/LogL* Log-L fncn R-sqrd R2Adj Constants only ********** .5358 .5354 Chi-squared[16] = 12206.01576 Prob [ chi squared > value ] = .00000 Response data are given as ind. choices Number of obs.= 11781, skipped 0 obs --------+-------------------------------------------------------------------- | Standard Prob. 95% Confidence CHOSEN| Coefficient Error z |z|>Z* Interval --------+-------------------------------------------------------------------- ASCL| -.48916*** .17728 -2.76 .0058 -.83662 -.14169 BLR| 1.89241*** .03140 60.26 .0000 1.83086 1.95396 BWIN| .68420*** .01947 35.15 .0000 .64604 .72235 LWORK| .59228*** .10060 5.89 .0000 .39511 .78945 LMIDDLE| -.03443 .09742 -.35 .7238 -.22536 .15651 LAGE| -.04176 .02742 -1.52 .1279 -.09551 .01199 LGENDER| -.17709** .07037 -2.52 .0119 -.31502 -.03917 LUNION| .57717*** .09305 6.20 .0000 .39480 .75954 LEDUC| .08954*** .02822 3.17 .0015 .03423 .14485 LOWN| -.30557*** .09505 -3.21 .0013 -.49186 -.11928 ASCLD| -1.90434*** .20132 -9.46 .0000 -2.29892 -1.50976 LDWORK| -.25951** .11680 -2.22 .0263 -.48844 -.03058 LDMIDDLE| .08437 .10275 .82 .4116 -.11701 .28575 LDAGE| .01881 .03028 .62 .5346 -.04054 .07815 LDGENDER| -.44027*** .07825 -5.63 .0000 -.59363 -.28690 LDUNION| .11917 .10817 1.10 .2706 -.09284 .33118 LDEDUC| .35286*** .03194 11.05 .0000 .29026 .41546 LDOWN| -.12640 .10968 -1.15 .2491 -.34137 .08857 --------+-------------------------------------------------------------------- Note: ***, **, * ==> Significance at 1%, 5%, 10% level. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- |-> CALC ; loglgen3 = logl $ ?**************************************** ?* Alternative-wise Specification ?**************************************** |-> CALC ; loglgen3 = logl $ |-> NLOGIT ;lhs = chosen; Choices = LAB, CONS, LD; Model: U(LAB) = ascl + llr*stdlr + lwin*stdwin + lwork*work + lmiddle*middle + lage*age + lgender*gender + lunion*union + leduc*educ + lown*ow U(CONS) = clr*stdlr + cwin*stdwin / U(LD) = ascld + ldlr*stdlr + ldwin*stdwin + ldwork*work + ldmiddle*middle + ldage*age + ldgender*gender + ldunion*union + ldeduc*educ + ldown*ow $ Normal exit: 7 iterations. Status=0, F= 5155.072 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discrete choice (multinomial logit) model Dependent variable Choice Log likelihood function -5155.07210 Estimation based on N = 11781, K = 22 Inf.Cr.AIC = 10354.1 AIC/N = .879 Model estimated: Apr 14, 2024, 17:21:40 R2=1-LogL/LogL* Log-L fncn R-sqrd R2Adj Constants only ********** .5474 .5470 Chi-squared[20] = 12471.62301 Prob [ chi squared > value ] = .00000 Response data are given as ind. choices Number of obs.= 11781, skipped 0 obs --------+-------------------------------------------------------------------- | Standard Prob. 95% Confidence CHOSEN| Coefficient Error z |z|>Z* Interval --------+-------------------------------------------------------------------- ASCL| -.12277 .18526 -.66 .5075 -.48588 .24034 LLR| 1.42822*** .04691 30.45 .0000 1.33628 1.52017 LWIN| .59588*** .03509 16.98 .0000 .52711 .66466 LWORK| .56383*** .10140 5.56 .0000 .36508 .76257 LMIDDLE| -.02305 .09833 -.23 .8147 -.21576 .16966 LAGE| -.09055*** .02785 -3.25 .0011 -.14512 -.03597 LGENDER| -.23104*** .07097 -3.26 .0011 -.37014 -.09195 LUNION| .53794*** .09410 5.72 .0000 .35350 .72238 LEDUC| .09063*** .02831 3.20 .0014 .03514 .14611 LOWN| -.24996*** .09578 -2.61 .0091 -.43767 -.06224 CLR| 2.30657*** .05259 43.86 .0000 2.20349 2.40965 CWIN| .54552*** .03487 15.64 .0000 .47718 .61387 ASCLD| -1.73174*** .22030 -7.86 .0000 -2.16351 -1.29997 LDLR| 1.80297*** .06823 26.43 .0000 1.66925 1.93669 LDWIN| 1.03604*** .04061 25.51 .0000 .95645 1.11563 LDWORK| -.26181** .12100 -2.16 .0305 -.49896 -.02466 LDMIDDLE| .09937 .10695 .93 .3529 -.11026 .30899 LDAGE| -.01048 .03157 -.33 .7398 -.07236 .05140 LDGENDER| -.55380*** .08175 -6.77 .0000 -.71402 -.39358 LDUNION| .07673 .11223 .68 .4942 -.14323 .29668 LDEDUC| .35278*** .03320 10.63 .0000 .28771 .41785 LDOWN| -.06866 .11405 -.60 .5471 -.29220 .15487 --------+-------------------------------------------------------------------- Note: ***, **, * ==> Significance at 1%, 5%, 10% level. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- |-> CALC ; loglasv3 = logl $ ?******************************************* ?* LR testing: generic vs. alternative-wise ?******************************************* |-> CALC ; loglasv3 = logl $ |-> CALC ; List ; chisq = 2*(loglasv3 - loglgen3) ; 1 - Chi(chisq,4) $ [CALC] CHISQ = 265.6072529 [CALC] = .0000000 Calculator: Computed 2 scalar results ?******************************************************* ?* Seven-Party Setting with Heterogeneous Ballots ?******************************************************* |-> Sample; All$ ?**************************************** ?* Generic Specification ?**************************************** |-> NLOGIT ;lhs = chosen, nij, altij; Choices = LAB, CONS, LD, UKIP, Gre, SNP, PC; Model: U(LAB) = ascl + blr*stdlr + bwin*stdwin + lwork*work + lmiddle*middle + lage*age + lgender*gender + lunion*union + leduc*educ + lown*own U(CONS) = blr*stdlr + bwin*stdwin / U(LD) = ascld + blr*stdlr + bwin*stdwin + ldwork*work + ldmiddle*middle + ldage*age + ldgender*gender + ldunion*union + ldeduc*educ + ldown*own U(UKIP) = ascu + blr*stdlr + bwin*stdwin + uwork*work + umiddle*middle + uage*age + ugender*gender + uunion*union + ueduc*educ + uown*own U(Gre) = ascg + blr*stdlr + bwin*stdwin + gwork*work + gmiddle*middle + gage*age + ggender*gender + gunion*union + geduc*educ + gown*own U(SNP) = ascu + blr*stdlr + bwin*stdwin + swork*work + smiddle*middle + sage*age + sgender*gender + sunion*union + seduc*educ + sown*own U(PC) = ascp + blr*stdlr + bwin*stdwin + pwork*work + pmiddle*middle + page*age + pgender*gender + punion*union + peduc*educ + pown*own $ Normal exit: 7 iterations. Status=0, F= 13688.90 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discrete choice (multinomial logit) model Dependent variable Choice Log likelihood function -13688.89617 Estimation based on N = 16453, K = 49 Inf.Cr.AIC = 27475.8 AIC/N = 1.670 Model estimated: Apr 14, 2024, 17:28:43 R2=1-LogL/LogL* Log-L fncn R-sqrd R2Adj Constants only must be computed directly Use NLOGIT ;...;RHS=ONE$ Response data are given as ind. choices Number of obs.= 16453, skipped 0 obs --------+-------------------------------------------------------------------- | Standard Prob. 95% Confidence CHOSEN| Coefficient Error z |z|>Z* Interval --------+-------------------------------------------------------------------- ASCL| -.58767*** .14590 -4.03 .0001 -.87363 -.30170 BLR| 1.62600*** .01997 81.43 .0000 1.58686 1.66514 BWIN| .66941*** .01394 48.03 .0000 .64210 .69672 LWORK| .45631*** .08480 5.38 .0000 .29011 .62250 LMIDDLE| -.01931 .08400 -.23 .8182 -.18395 .14533 LAGE| -.02593 .02355 -1.10 .2709 -.07210 .02023 LGENDER| -.05859 .05936 -.99 .3237 -.17493 .05776 LUNION| .63104*** .07892 8.00 .0000 .47635 .78572 LEDUC| .09080*** .02355 3.86 .0001 .04465 .13695 LOWN| -.34992*** .08010 -4.37 .0000 -.50691 -.19293 ASCLD| -1.80133*** .18502 -9.74 .0000 -2.16396 -1.43871 LDWORK| -.30982*** .10799 -2.87 .0041 -.52148 -.09817 LDMIDDLE| .04811 .09495 .51 .6124 -.13799 .23421 LDAGE| .02435 .02826 .86 .3888 -.03103 .07973 LDGENDER| -.31381*** .07214 -4.35 .0000 -.45520 -.17242 LDUNION| .17704* .09994 1.77 .0765 -.01885 .37292 LDEDUC| .31520*** .02940 10.72 .0000 .25758 .37281 LDOWN| -.17102* .10127 -1.69 .0913 -.36950 .02746 ASCU| .89566*** .13946 6.42 .0000 .62233 1.16899 UWORK| .30807*** .08416 3.66 .0003 .14312 .47301 UMIDDLE| -.53986*** .08746 -6.17 .0000 -.71128 -.36845 UAGE| .03719 .02571 1.45 .1481 -.01321 .08759 UGENDER| -.59865*** .06316 -9.48 .0000 -.72245 -.47486 UUNION| .42397*** .08862 4.78 .0000 .25027 .59767 UEDUC| -.05571** .02392 -2.33 .0198 -.10258 -.00884 UOWN| -.24999*** .08597 -2.91 .0036 -.41849 -.08149 ASCG| -1.59864*** .23648 -6.76 .0000 -2.06214 -1.13514 GWORK| -.44828*** .12639 -3.55 .0004 -.69601 -.20055 GMIDDLE| -.45860*** .11991 -3.82 .0001 -.69361 -.22359 GAGE| -.30620*** .03674 -8.33 .0000 -.37822 -.23418 GGENDER| -.14798 .09342 -1.58 .1132 -.33108 .03512 GUNION| .22215* .11796 1.88 .0597 -.00905 .45335 GEDUC| .24055*** .04024 5.98 .0000 .16168 .31942 GOWN| -.36861*** .11779 -3.13 .0018 -.59947 -.13776 SWORK| .20790 .12925 1.61 .1077 -.04543 .46124 SMIDDLE| -.44350*** .13871 -3.20 .0014 -.71536 -.17164 SAGE| -.15510*** .03925 -3.95 .0001 -.23204 -.07816 SGENDER| -.38576*** .09065 -4.26 .0000 -.56344 -.20809 SUNION| .40666*** .12553 3.24 .0012 .16062 .65270 SEDUC| .00265 .03532 .07 .9402 -.06657 .07186 SOWN| -.45691*** .12814 -3.57 .0004 -.70806 -.20576 ASCP| -1.18006*** .42555 -2.77 .0056 -2.01413 -.34600 PWORK| -.00814 .23144 -.04 .9720 -.46174 .44547 PMIDDLE| -.04112 .23265 -.18 .8597 -.49711 .41488 PAGE| -.06432 .07186 -.90 .3707 -.20515 .07652 PGENDER| -.41663** .17191 -2.42 .0154 -.75356 -.07971 PUNION| .79168*** .19551 4.05 .0001 .40847 1.17488 PEDUC| .12718* .06653 1.91 .0559 -.00321 .25757 POWN| -.01505 .24302 -.06 .9506 -.49135 .46126 --------+-------------------------------------------------------------------- Note: ***, **, * ==> Significance at 1%, 5%, 10% level. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- |-> CALC ; loglgen = logl $ ?**************************************** ?* Alternative-wise Specification ?**************************************** |-> NLOGIT ;lhs = chosen, nij, altij; Choices = LAB, CONS, LD, UKIP, Gre, SNP, PC; Model: U(LAB) = ascl + llr*stdlr + lwin*stdwin + lwork*work + lmiddle*middle + lage*age + lgender*gender + lunion*union + leduc*educ + lown*ow U(CONS) = clr*stdlr + cwin*stdwin / U(LD) = ascld + ldlr*stdlr + ldwin*stdwin + ldwork*work + ldmiddle*middle + ldage*age + ldgender*gender + ldunion*union + ldeduc*educ + ldown*ow U(UKIP) = ascu + ulr*stdlr + uwin*stdwin + uwork*work + umiddle*middle + uage*age + ugender*gender + uunion*union + ueduc*educ + uown*o U(Gre) = ascg + glr*stdlr + gwin*stdwin + gwork*work + gmiddle*middle + gage*age + ggender*gender + gunion*union + geduc*educ + gown*ow U(SNP) = ascu + slr*stdlr + swin*stdwin + swork*work + smiddle*middle + sage*age + sgender*gender + sunion*union + seduc*educ + sown*ow U(PC) = ascp + plr*stdlr + pwin*stdwin + pwork*work + pmiddle*middle + page*age + pgender*gender + punion*union + peduc*educ + pown*own $ Normal exit: 7 iterations. Status=0, F= 13403.82 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discrete choice (multinomial logit) model Dependent variable Choice Log likelihood function -13403.82009 Estimation based on N = 16453, K = 61 Inf.Cr.AIC = 26929.6 AIC/N = 1.637 Model estimated: Apr 14, 2024, 17:29:41 R2=1-LogL/LogL* Log-L fncn R-sqrd R2Adj Constants only must be computed directly Use NLOGIT ;...;RHS=ONE$ Response data are given as ind. choices Number of obs.= 16453, skipped 0 obs --------+-------------------------------------------------------------------- | Standard Prob. 95% Confidence CHOSEN| Coefficient Error z |z|>Z* Interval --------+-------------------------------------------------------------------- ASCL| -.19764 .15738 -1.26 .2092 -.50610 .11081 LLR| 1.42438*** .03671 38.80 .0000 1.35243 1.49632 LWIN| .59177*** .02651 22.33 .0000 .53982 .64372 LWORK| .48705*** .08679 5.61 .0000 .31694 .65716 LMIDDLE| -.01574 .08595 -.18 .8547 -.18420 .15272 LAGE| -.05804** .02425 -2.39 .0167 -.10557 -.01050 LGENDER| -.14443** .06119 -2.36 .0183 -.26436 -.02450 LUNION| .59587*** .08150 7.31 .0000 .43612 .75561 LEDUC| .07260*** .02415 3.01 .0026 .02526 .11994 LOWN| -.31720*** .08220 -3.86 .0001 -.47830 -.15609 CLR| 2.10432*** .04125 51.01 .0000 2.02346 2.18517 CWIN| .47890*** .02593 18.47 .0000 .42806 .52973 ASCLD| -1.74682*** .20525 -8.51 .0000 -2.14911 -1.34453 LDLR| 1.76805*** .06384 27.70 .0000 1.64294 1.89317 LDWIN| 1.03198*** .03748 27.53 .0000 .95852 1.10544 LDWORK| -.26523** .11263 -2.35 .0185 -.48597 -.04449 LDMIDDLE| .08269 .09955 .83 .4062 -.11243 .27780 LDAGE| .00910 .02964 .31 .7589 -.04901 .06720 LDGENDER| -.46446*** .07605 -6.11 .0000 -.61351 -.31541 LDUNION| .15059 .10454 1.44 .1497 -.05431 .35549 LDEDUC| .31582*** .03089 10.22 .0000 .25528 .37636 LDOWN| -.11954 .10601 -1.13 .2595 -.32732 .08825 ASCU| 1.22973*** .14971 8.21 .0000 .93630 1.52316 ULR| 1.36113*** .03900 34.90 .0000 1.28469 1.43758 UWIN| .96555*** .03627 26.62 .0000 .89445 1.03664 UWORK| .28527*** .08573 3.33 .0009 .11725 .45329 UMIDDLE| -.48930*** .08896 -5.50 .0000 -.66365 -.31494 UAGE| .03561 .02619 1.36 .1740 -.01573 .08694 UGENDER| -.69764*** .06468 -10.79 .0000 -.82440 -.57088 UUNION| .36205*** .09026 4.01 .0001 .18514 .53895 UEDUC| -.04419* .02439 -1.81 .0700 -.09200 .00362 UOWN| -.19548** .08767 -2.23 .0258 -.36731 -.02365 ASCG| -.92961*** .24585 -3.78 .0002 -1.41146 -.44775 GLR| 1.08739*** .07267 14.96 .0000 .94495 1.22982 GWIN| .78044*** .05472 14.26 .0000 .67318 .88769 GWORK| -.40472*** .12707 -3.19 .0014 -.65377 -.15567 GMIDDLE| -.45787*** .12029 -3.81 .0001 -.69362 -.22211 GAGE| -.31497*** .03673 -8.57 .0000 -.38697 -.24298 GGENDER| -.24025** .09457 -2.54 .0111 -.42559 -.05491 GUNION| .23273* .11907 1.95 .0506 -.00064 .46610 GEDUC| .23485*** .04033 5.82 .0000 .15581 .31390 GOWN| -.36632*** .11851 -3.09 .0020 -.59860 -.13404 SLR| 1.46117*** .07046 20.74 .0000 1.32307 1.59927 SWIN| .75058*** .06461 11.62 .0000 .62396 .87721 SWORK| .20298 .13024 1.56 .1191 -.05228 .45823 SMIDDLE| -.43672*** .13967 -3.13 .0018 -.71047 -.16297 SAGE| -.17874*** .03952 -4.52 .0000 -.25621 -.10128 SGENDER| -.50187*** .09331 -5.38 .0000 -.68475 -.31899 SUNION| .36382*** .12594 2.89 .0039 .11697 .61066 SEDUC| -.02067 .03610 -.57 .5670 -.09143 .05010 SOWN| -.44007*** .12879 -3.42 .0006 -.69249 -.18765 ASCP| -.60437 .42770 -1.41 .1576 -1.44264 .23390 PLR| 1.06647*** .13453 7.93 .0000 .80280 1.33015 PWIN| .64585*** .08855 7.29 .0000 .47229 .81940 PWORK| .01455 .22767 .06 .9490 -.43168 .46078 PMIDDLE| -.05302 .22856 -.23 .8166 -.50099 .39495 PAGE| -.09734 .07048 -1.38 .1673 -.23548 .04081 PGENDER| -.47516*** .17014 -2.79 .0052 -.80863 -.14168 PUNION| .74000*** .19229 3.85 .0001 .36311 1.11689 PEDUC| .11967* .06514 1.84 .0662 -.00800 .24734 POWN| .02081 .24004 .09 .9309 -.44965 .49128 --------+-------------------------------------------------------------------- Note: ***, **, * ==> Significance at 1%, 5%, 10% level. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- |-> CALC ; loglasv = logl $ ?******************************************* ?* LR testing: generic vs. alternative-wise ?******************************************* [CALC] CHISQ = 570.1521530 [CALC] = .0000000 Calculator: Computed 2 scalar results