Hygrothermal simulation to predict the preservation risk and thermal comfort in historic buildings. Effects of future climate change in the Mediterranean

Abstract

Institutions managing built heritage have to make use of increasingly detailed and elaborate impact assessments on climate change scenarios. This paper evaluates the risks to valuable historic objects and buildings exposed to indoor overheating conditions, as well as to the thermal comfort of users due to external climate change. The main aim of this research is to study the impact of future climate change scenarios on the preservation of property, thermal occupant comfort and annual primary energy in historic buildings. An experimental method was followed, combining analytical formulations and on-site experimental measurements with simulation techniques to predict the hygrothermal behaviour of religious spaces. Measurements were also carried out to obtain representative climate data. The climate change scenario predicted for 2050 was based on projected temperature changes using CCWorldWeatherGen software. The results showed that the risk of overheating increases under climate change scenarios. Heating demand for spaces in the building analysed is reduced, while cooling demand is increased. Currently, the use of active systems in operation for 12-hour periods improves the thermal comfort and the preservation of artworks. The energy consumption of environmental conditioning for thermal comfort and preservation is 50% higher than environmental consumption for the preservation of artworks alone.