The use of observations of soft X-rays and protons in the UMASEP scheme for making real-time predictions of the SEP events that took place in july and september 2017

Abstract

The UMASEP-10 tool [Núñez, 2011] works in an operational level since 2010, and its >10 MeV Solar Energetic Proton (SEP) predictions are diseminated by NASA’s integrated Space Weather Analysis system (iSWA). This presentation shows the real-time predictions of the SEP events that took place in July and September 2017. The UMASEP-10 tool predicts the occurrence and intensity of the first hours of >10 MeV SEP events using the Well-Connected prediction (WCP) model and the Poorly-Connected prediction (PCP) model. The WCP model infers the observer's interplanetary magnetic field connection to the shock source by correlating remote sensing SXR and proton data at near-Earth. This poster also presents a summary of the predictions of the UMASEP-100 [Núñez, 2015] and HESPERIA UMASEP-500 [Núñez et al., 2017] tools for predicting >100 MeV and >500 MeV events, respectively, during the aforementioned period.