Human activities link fruit bat presence to Ebola virus disease outbreaks

Abstract

A significant link between forest loss and fragmentation and outbreaks of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in humans has been documented. Deforestation may alter the natural circulation of viruses and change the composition, abundance, behaviour and possibly viral exposure of reservoir species. This in turn might increase contact between infected animals and humans. Fruit bats of the family Pteropodidae have been suspected as reservoirs of the Ebola virus. At present, the only evidence associating fruit bats with EVD is the presence of seropositive individuals in eight species and polymerase chain reaction-positive individuals in three of these. Our study investigates whether human activities can increase African fruit bat geographical ranges and whether this influence overlaps geographically with EVD outbreaks that, in turn, are favoured by deforestation. We use species observation records for the 20 fruit bat species found in favourable areas for the Ebola virus to determine factors affecting the bats’ range inside the predicted Ebola virus area. We do this by employing a hypothetico-deductive approach based on favourability modelling. We show that the range of some fruit bat species is linked to human activities within the favourable areas for the Ebola virus. More specifically, the areas where human activities favour the presence of five fruit bat species