Unravelling the historical biogeography of the European rabbit subspecies in the Iberian Peninsula

Abstract

Understanding the biogeography of species in space and time is essential for the development of evidence-based conservation and management plans. In this paper we propose a biogeographical spatial modelling approach based on the favourability function, and developed under a fuzzy logic framework, to unravel the historical biogeography of the two European wild rabbit subspecies, Oryctolagus cuniculus algirus (Oca) and Oryctolagus cuniculus cuniculus (Occ), in the Iberian Peninsula (IP). We first reviewed published and unpublished information (PhD theses, scientific papers, technical reports, etc.) on the occurrence of each rabbit subspecies throughout the IP. We compiled data from 201 Iberian rabbit populations and from genetic information of 4348 rabbits that was used to identify subspecies. Only populations in which all rabbits surveyed belonged to one subspecies were considered in the modelling procedure. We modelled rabbit subspecies' distribution separately for populations in which nuclear and mitochondrial DNA sequences were available. We employed a trend surface analysis developed by logistic regressions, which applied the favourability function and fuzzy logic operations. Using our approach we indentify the expansion cores from which both rabbit subspecies would have expanded after isolation during the last glaciations. Furthermore, we reveal the possible existence of a competitive exclusion zone between both rabbit subspecies that may have prevented their further expansion. Finally, our study shows that the Oca subspecies is distributed in north-western areas previously attributed to Occ. [...]