The high climate vulnerability of western Mediterranean forests

Abstract

Understanding the effects of climate change is one of the most challenging goals for biodiversity conservation. The forests of Andalusia, in Southern Spain, are part of an important Mediterranean Basin biodiversity hotspot. However, great changes in climate are expected to occur in this region, and there is an increasing need to assess the vulnerability of its vegetation.

We assess the vulnerability of twelve forest types in the region that are included in the European Directive 92/43/EEC as Habitats of Community Interest (HCI). HCI are natural habitat types which are in danger, have a small natural range, or present an outstanding example of a biogeographical regions in the European Union. We assessed vulnerability by analyzing the climate exposure level of each forest type under two global climate models [...], two emission scenarios [...] by the mid- and end-century time periods. The vulnerability analysis also includes the sensitivity and adaptive capacity of the dominant tree species which compose each forest type. An overall vulnerability score was calculated for each forest type, model, scenario and time period.

[...] However, the effects of climate change will be perceptible by the mid-century, with most of the HCI forest types suffering climate stress.

The “Andalusian oak forest” and the “Corylus wet forest” types were the most vulnerable to climate change, while the “Mediterranean pine forest”, the “Olea and Ceratonia forests” and the “oak forests” were the least vulnerable.

This assessment identifies the vulnerable forest types to climate change in the south of the Iberian Peninsula, and provides context for natural resource managers in making decisions about how to adapt forests to the impacts of climate change.