Projecting Extinction Risk and Assessing Conservation Effectiveness for Three Threatened Relict Ferns in theWestern Mediterranean Basin

Abstract

Relict fern species, confined to microhabitats with stable historical conditions, are especially vulnerable to climate change. The Alboran Arc hosts a unique relict fern flora, including Culcita macrocarpa, Diplazium caudatum, and Pteris incompleta, and functions as a major Pleistocene refuge. This study assesses the population trends and climate sensitivity of these species in Los Alcornocales Natural Park using annual abundance time series for a decade, empirical survival projections, and principal component analysis to identify key climatic drivers. Results reveal distinct climate response clusters among populations, though intra-specific variation highlights the importance of local conditions. Climate change is already impacting population viability, especially for P. incompleta, which shows high sensitivity to rising maximum temperatures and prolonged heatwaves. Climate-driven models forecast more severe declines than empirical ones, particularly for C. macrocarpa and P. incompleta, with the latter showing a projected collapse by the mid-century. In contrast, D. caudatum exhibits moderate vulnerability. Crucially, the divergence between models underscores the impact of conservation efforts: without reinforcement and reintroduction actions, projected declines would likely be more severe. These results project a decline in the populations of the studied ferns, highlighting the urgent need to continue implementing both in situ and ex situ conservation measures.