Analyzing the dynamics of forest fires in Málaga province: assessing the interplay of vegetation and human influence on regional hazard trends over three decades

Abstract

Wildfires are a global issue, exacerbated by climate change, and are particularly significant in the Mediterranean basin. This study aims to analyze forest fire dynamics in Málaga province (Southern Spain), examine their temporal evolution, evaluate significant hazards such as vegetation and human activities, and assess the effectiveness of measures taken against forest fires. The primary objective is to identify factors that exacerbate fires and suggest mitigation strategies. The study analyzed the frequency, affected area, and casualties of forest fires over the past 30 years using data from the Andalusian Environmental Information Network (REDIAM). Vegetation flammability, generally high in the province, was evaluated by classifying plant species from the Map of Land Use and Land Cover in Andalucía (MUCVA) and comparing burned and unburned areas from 2010 to 2022. Additionally, fuel density and continuity, also notably high, were examined using REDIAM geodata. The study also assessed the implementation of the Forest Fire Fighting Plan in the Autonomous Community of Andalucía (INFOCA Plan), focusing on its spatial distribution and the “protection” provided by public administration for areas with protective designations and public forests. Finally, the effectiveness of prevention and firefighting measures in Málaga province was evaluated through an extensive literature review. The data indicates a high occurrence of fires, with three-quarters caused by human activities, and significant peaks in the affected areas. It was found that protected areas represented three-quarters of the burned area. The findings revealed that certain preventive measures were insufficient, leading to proposed improvements.