DISE: A Dynamic Integrated Space-Economy Model for Orbital Debris Mitigation Policy Evaluation

Abstract

This paper presents the Dynamic Integrated Space-Economy (DISE) model, designed to study the economic implications of alternative policies to mitigate orbital debris. The DISE model combines a standard neoclassical growth model with a physical space model for orbital debris dynamics. The economic model categorizes capital assets into two types: Earth’s capital and Space’s capital (i.e., satellites). The orbital debris model describes the dynamic of three types of objects: derelict satellites, rocket bodies, and fragments. DISE is intended to calculate the cost of space debris and its impact on the global economy. The model is simulated for a horizon of 200 years, starting from 2024, under different scenarios, including a clean space environment, laissez-faire, derelict satellites de-orbiting policy, all intact objects de-orbiting policy, debris-free launch systems, a combination of de-orbiting and debris-free launch vehicles, and collision avoidance. We find that the implementation of de-orbiting and debris-free launch systems mitigation policies is not enough to ensure space environmental sustainability, as in the long run the main source of debris generation would be collisions. Without any debris mitigation intervention, the cost of orbital debris would be more than 0.5% of world GDP in the long-run.