RT Journal Article
T1 Worldwide dynamic biogeography of zoonotic and anthroponotic dengue
A1 Aliaga-Samanez, Alisa
A1 Cobos-Mayo, Marina
A1 Real-Giménez, Raimundo
A1 Segura Moreno, Marina
A1 Romero-Pacheco, David
A1 Fa, Julia E.
A1 Olivero-Anarte, Jesús
A2 Holbrook, Michael R.
K1 Biogeografía
K1 Dengue
AB Dengue is a viral disease transmitted by mosquitoes. The rapid spread of dengue could lead to a global pandemic, and so the geographical extent of this spread needs to be assessed and predicted. There are also reasons to suggest that transmission of dengue from nonhuman primates in tropical forest cycles is being underestimated. We investigate the finescale geographic changes in transmission risk since the late 20th century, and take into account for the first time the potential role that primate biogeography and sylvatic vectors play in increasing the disease transmission risk. We apply a biogeographic framework to themost recent global dataset of dengue cases. Temporally stratified models describing favorable areas for vector presence and for disease transmission are combined. Our models were validated for predictive capacity, and point to a significant broadening of vector presence in tropical and non-tropical areas globally. We show that dengue transmission is likely to spread to affected areas in China, Papua New Guinea, Australia, USA, Colombia, Venezuela, Madagascar, as well as to cities in Europe and Japan. These models also suggest that dengue transmission is likely to spread to regions where there are presently no or very few reports of occurrence. According to our results, sylvatic dengue cycles account for a small percentage of the global extent of the human case record, but could be increasing in relevance in Asia, Africa, and South America. The spatial distribution of factors favoringtransmission risk in different regions of the world allows for distinct management strategies to be prepared.
PB PLoS - Negl Trop Dis
YR 2021
FD 2021
LK https://hdl.handle.net/10630/33760
UL https://hdl.handle.net/10630/33760
LA eng
NO Aliaga-Samanez A, Cobos-Mayo M, Real R, Segura M, Romero D, Fa JE, et al. (2021) Worldwide dynamic biogeography of zoonotic and anthroponotic dengue. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 15(6): e0009496. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal. pntd.0009496
NO This study was supported by the Project CGL2016-76747-R, of the Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competitiveness and the European Regional Development Fund. AA-S was supported by the FPU16/06710 grant of the Spanish Ministry of Education. JEF was funded by USAID as part of the Bushmeat Research Initiative of the CGIAR research program on Forests, Trees and Agroforestry.
DS RIUMA. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad de Málaga
RD 20 ene 2026