RT Journal Article
T1 Impact of aleatoric, stochastic and epistemic uncertainties on project cost contingency reserves
A1 Curto, David
A1 Acebes Senovilla, Fernando
A1 González-Varona, José Manuel
A1 Poza García, David
K1 Montecarlo, Método de
K1 Incertidumbre
AB In construction projects, contingency reserves have traditionally been estimated based on a percentage of the total project cost, which is arbitrary and, thus, unreliable in practical cases. Monte Carlo simulation provides a more reliable estimation. However, works on this topic have focused exclusively on the effects of aleatoric uncertainty, but ignored the impacts of other uncertainty types. In this paper, we present a method to quantitatively determine project cost contingency reserves based on Monte Carlo Simulation that considers the impact of not only aleatoric uncertainty, but also of the effects of other uncertainty kinds (stochastic, epistemic) on the total project cost. The proposed method has been validated with a real-case construction project in Spain. The obtained results demonstrate that the approach will be helpful for construction Project Managers because the obtained cost contingency reserves are consistent with the actual uncertainty type that affects the risks identified in their projects.
PB ELSEVIER (International Journal of Production Economics)
YR 2022
FD 2022
LK https://hdl.handle.net/10630/33470
UL https://hdl.handle.net/10630/33470
LA eng
NO D. Curto, F. Acebes, J.M. González-Varona, D. Poza, Impact of aleatoric, stochastic and epistemic uncertainties on project cost contingency reserves, International Journal of Production Economics, Volume 253, 2022, 108626, ISSN 0925-5273, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijpe.2022.108626.
NO This research has been partially financed by the Regional Government of Castilla and Leon (Spain) with Grant (VA180P20)
DS RIUMA. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad de Málaga
RD 22 ene 2026