RT Journal Article
T1 A global prediction model for sudden stops of capital flows using decision trees.
A1 Salas-Compás, María Belén
A1 Alaminos, David
A1 Fernández, Manuel Ángel
A1 López-Valverde, Francisco
K1 Circulación de capitales - Modelos econométricos
K1 Árboles de decisión
AB Capital flows is an important aspect of the international monetary system because they pro-vide great direct and indirect benefits, and at the same time, they carry risks of vulnerabilityfor countries with an open economy. Numerous works have studied the behavior of theseflows and have developed models to predict sudden stop events. However, the existingmodels have limitations and the literature demands more research on the subject given thatthe accuracy of the models is still poor, and they have only been developed for emergingcountries. This paper presents a new prediction model of sudden stop events of capitalflows for both emerging countries and developed countries with the ability to estimate accu-rately future sudden stop scenarios globally. A sample of 103 countries was used, including73 emerging countries and 30 developed countries, which has allowed the use of samplecombinations that consider the regional heterogeneity of the warning indicators. To the sam-ple under study, a method of decision trees has been applied, which has provided excellentprediction results given its ability to learn characteristics and create long-term dependenciesfrom sequential data and time series. Our model has a great potential impact on the ade-quacy of macroeconomic policy against the risks derived from sudden stops of capital flows,providing tools that help to achieve financial stability at the global level.
PB PLOS
YR 2020
FD 2020-02-12
LK https://hdl.handle.net/10630/32284
UL https://hdl.handle.net/10630/32284
LA eng
NO Salas MB, Alaminos D, Ferna´ndez MA, Lo´pez-Valverde F (2020) A global prediction model for sudden stops of capital flows using decision trees. PLoS ONE 15(2): e0228387
NO This research was funded by Universidad de Málaga to MBS
DS RIUMA. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad de Málaga
RD 19 ene 2026