RT Journal Article
T1 Assessment of the thermal energy demand of Spain’s residential building stock under future climate scenarios
A1 Jiménez-Navarro, Juan-Pablo
A1 Sarabia-Escriva, Emilio-José
A1 Soto-Francés, Víctor-Manuel
A1 Pinazo-Ojer, José Manuel
K1 Edificios - Calefacción y ventilación - España
K1 Calefacción
K1 Aire acondicionado
K1 Energía - Consumo - España
K1 Viviendas - Consumo de energía - España
AB This study uses a bottom-up model of over 200,000 cases to assess Spain’s residential building stock under future climate scenarios for the years 2050 and 2080 (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5), aiming to inform the critical need for climate adaptation planning in the building sector. The novelty of our approach lies in the simultaneous comparison of real, sensible energy demand (free-running simulation) against the official, restrictive energy certification procedure, an approach not previously performed for the entire Spanish stock.The analysis yields two major contributions that challenge current policy. First, we observe a significant shift in energy use: cooling demand surges—doubling by 2080 in vulnerable areas—while heating demand declines, resulting in a net change to total final energy demand of less than 4% across all scenarios. Second, Spain’s current energy certification procedure underestimates 2022 total demand by approximately 5%, primarily by underestimating cooling needs by 18%, a discrepancy that will worsen with climate change. As a result, it fails to capture real discomfort, especially in summer.A key policy insight is that retrofitting the entire stock to current building code (CTE) U-values would halve total demand and cap future cooling at today’s levels. The Mediterranean region, with half the national stock, is most at risk, facing cooling demand increases of up to 138%. Therefore, a national strategy must prioritize retrofitting the oldest single-family homes in southern Mediterranean areas.
PB Elsevier
YR 2026
FD 2026
LK https://hdl.handle.net/10630/45133
UL https://hdl.handle.net/10630/45133
LA eng
NO Juan-Pablo Jiménez-Navarro, Emilio-José Sarabia-Escriva, Víctor-Manuel Soto-Francés, José-Manuel Pinazo-Ojer, Assessment of the thermal energy demand of Spain’s residential building stock under future climate scenarios, Energy and Buildings, Volume 354, 2026, 116995, ISSN 0378-7788, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2026.116995.
NO Funding for open access charge: Universidad de Málaga / CBUA
DS RIUMA. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad de Málaga
RD 3 mar 2026