RT Journal Article
T1 Retrospective phenology in western Mediterranean plants: revealing climate change patterns through herbarium specimens
A1 Solakis Tena, Andros
A1 Casimiro-Soriguer Solanas, Federico
A1 Hidalgo-Triana, Noelia
K1 floración
K1 fructificación
K1 calentamiento global
K1 Plantas -- Crecimiento
AB Herbarium specimens have proven useful for assessing phenological responses to climate change. Using preserved specimens, weanalysed the changes in day of year (DOY) for four phenophases: three reproductive (preflowering, flowering, fruiting) and one vegetative(growth). We conducted phenological analysis across bioclimatic belts (thermotypes) from the Rivas–Martinez classification and across 77taxa present in the Baetic Ranges of the southern Iberian Peninsula. Taxa were characteristic, common, or endemic species from Habitats ofCommunity Interest (HCI) under the European Directive 92/43/EEC. Phenological shifts were assessed using two approaches: long-termtrends in DOY with time and relationships with historical climate variables related to temperature and precipitation. At the thermotypes level,flowering advanced consistently over time and with increasing temperatures, showing homogeneous responses and suggesting a weakeningof altitudinal differentiation. In contrast, growth exhibited thermotype-specific trends, with stronger advances at high elevations, whilepreflowering and fruiting showed little or no sensitivity to time or climate variables. At the species level, 31% of taxa showed phenologicalchanges over time in the Baetic Ranges (−3.6 days/decade for reproductive and −5.6 days/decade for vegetative phenophases). However,97% of taxa showed significant relationships with increasing temperatures and decreasing precipitation, particularly with mean annualtemperature (−12.7 days for reproductive and −14.3 days for vegetative phenophases per increased °C). These phenological changes couldhinder reproductive and vegetative success by causing mismatches with other ecosystem role-players. As the Mediterranean is expected tobecome warmer and drier, our findings indicate a potential threat to HCI in the southern Mediterranean.
PB Oxford University Press
YR 2025
FD 2025
LK https://hdl.handle.net/10630/40943
UL https://hdl.handle.net/10630/40943
LA eng
NO Andros Solakis-Tena, Federico Casimiro-Soriguer Solanas, Noelia Hidalgo-Triana, Retrospective phenology in western Mediterranean plants: revealing climate change patterns through herbarium specimens, AoB PLANTS, Volume 17, Issue 6, December 2025, plaf064, https://doi.org/10.1093/aobpla/plaf064
NO Funding for open access charge: Universidad de Málaga/CBUA
DS RIUMA. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad de Málaga
RD 24 ene 2026