RT Journal Article
T1 Updating known distribution models for forecasting climate change impact on endangered species
A1 Muñoz-Gallego, Antonio Román
A1 Márquez-Moya, Ana Luz
A1 Real-Giménez, Raimundo
K1 Animales en vías de extinción - Factores climáticos
K1 Extinción (Biología) - Factores climáticos
AB To plan endangered species conservation and to design adequate management programmes, it is necessary to predict theirdistributional response to climate change, especially under the current situation of rapid change. However, thesepredictions are customarily done by relating de novo the distribution of the species with climatic conditions with no regardof previously available knowledge about the factors affecting the species distribution. We propose to take advantage ofknown species distribution models, but proceeding to update them with the variables yielded by climatic models beforeprojecting them to the future. To exemplify our proposal, the availability of suitable habitat across Spain for the endangeredBonelli’s Eagle (Aquila fasciata) was modelled by updating a pre-existing model based on current climate and topography toa combination of different general circulation models and Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Our results suggested thatthe main threat for this endangered species would not be climate change, since all forecasting models show that itsdistribution will be maintained and increased in mainland Spain for all the XXI century. We remark on the importance oflinking conservation biology with distribution modelling by updating existing models, frequently available for endangeredspecies, considering all the known factors conditioning the species’ distribution, instead of building new models that arebased on climate change variables only.
PB San Francisco, CA : Public Library of Science
SN 1932-6203 (Electronic)
YR 2013
FD 2013-06-28
LK http://hdl.handle.net/10630/7051
UL http://hdl.handle.net/10630/7051
LA eng
NO Muñoz A-R, Márquez AL, Real R (2013) Updating Known Distribution Models for Forecasting Climate Change Impact on Endangered Species. PLoS ONE 8(6): e65462. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0065462
NO Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación and FEDER (project CGL2009-11316/BOS)
DS RIUMA. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad de Málaga
RD 19 ene 2026