RT Journal Article
T1 Variations, trends and forecast models for the airborne Olea europaea pollen season in Tétouan (NW of Morocco)
A1 Raissouni, Ijlal 
A1 Boullayali, Asmaa
A1 Recio-Criado, María Marta
A1 Bouziane, Hassan
K1 Polen - Dispersión - Tetuán (Provincia, Marruecos)
AB Olea europaea L. is an emblematic tree plantation of the Mediterranean basin and one of the main sources of allergenicpollen. In this study, we examined variations in airborne Olea pollen season, trends and built forecast models based onmultiple regression analysis over a 13-year period (2008–2019, 2022) in NW of Morocco (Tétouan), focusing on startdate of pollination (SDP), end date of pollination (EDP), peak date (PD), and pre-peak pollen Integral (PPI). Spearman’scorrelation analysis highlighted the importance of different pre-season meteorological parameters on the features of Oleapollen season depending on the period considered. SDP became earlier with increasing minimum temperature in March,while EDP was mainly influenced by precipitation in February and PD is earlier with increasing maximum temperatureand precipitation in February. Linear regression results indicated a trend toward a shorter pollination period, almostsignificant, by delaying SDP rather than earlier EDP, probably due to the significant decrease in minimum temperaturebetween January and April. The best regression models predicted the characteristics of the Olea pollen season to within2 days and a value close to the PPI at 45 pollen*day/m3, and achieved an accuracy between 58 and 95%. The strongestpredictors when forecasting SDP, EDP, PD and PPI were minimum temperature in March, precipitation in April, maximumtemperature in February and minimum temperature in November, respectively. Findings suggest that olive reproductivecycle is considerably dependent on pre-season meteorological parameters. Further performed statistical analysis should bemade to improve traditional models using a long data series
PB Springer Nature
YR 2024
FD 2024
LK https://hdl.handle.net/10630/37828
UL https://hdl.handle.net/10630/37828
LA eng
NO Raissouni, I., Boullayali, A., Recio, M. et al. Variations, trends and forecast models for the airborne Olea europaea pollen season in Tétouan (NW of Morocco). Int J Biometeorol 68, 2613–2625 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-024-02772-9
NO https://openpolicyfinder.jisc.ac.uk/id/publication/8029
DS RIUMA. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad de Málaga
RD 27 feb 2026