RT Journal Article
T1 Climate change is aggravating dengue and yellow fever transmission risk
A1 Aliaga-Samanez, Alisa
A1 Romero-Pacheco, David
A1 Murray, Kris A.
A1 Cobos-Mayo, Marina
A1 Segura, Marina
A1 Real-Giménez, Raimundo
A1 Olivero-Anarte, Jesús
A2 Jean-François, 
K1 Cambios climáticos
K1 Dengue
K1 Fiebre amarilla
AB Dengue and yellow fever have complex cycles, involving urban and sylvatic mosquitoes, and non-human primate hosts. To date, efforts to assess the effect of climate change on these diseases have neglected the combination of such crucial factors. This is the first study to include them together with sylvatic vectors and the distribution of primates to analyse the effect of climate change on these diseases. We used previously published models, based on machine learning algorithms and fuzzy logic, to identify areas where climatic favourability for the relevant transmission agents could change: 1) favourable areas for the circulation of the viruses due to the environment and to non-human primate distributions; 2) the favourability for urban and sylvatic vectors. We obtained projections of future transmission risk for two future periods and for each disease, and implemented uncertainty analyses to test for predictions reliability. Areas currently favourable for both diseases could keep being climatically favourable, while global favourability could increase a 7% for yellow fever and a 10% increase for dengue. Areas likely to be more affected in the future for dengue include West Africa, South Asia, the Gulf of Mexico, Central America and the Amazon basin. A possible spread of dengue could take place into Europe, the Mediterranean basin, the UK and Portugal; and, in Asia, into northern China. For yellow fever, climate could become more favourable in Central and Southeast Africa; India; and in north and southeast South America, including Brazil, Paraguay, Bolivia, Peru, Colombia and Venezuela. In Brazil, favourability for yellow fever will probably increase in the south, the west and the east. Areas where the transmission risk spread is consistent to the dispersal of vectors are highlighted in respect of areas where the expected spread is directly attributable to environmental changes. Both scenarios could involve different prevention strategies.
PB John Wiley & Sons Ltd
YR 2024
FD 2024
LK https://hdl.handle.net/10630/33407
UL https://hdl.handle.net/10630/33407
LA eng
NO Aliaga-Samanez, A., Romero, D., Murray, K., Cobos-Mayo, M., Segura, M., Real, R., & Olivero, J. (2024). Climate change is aggravating dengue and yellow fever transmission risk. Ecography, e06942.
NO This study was supported by Project PID2021-124063OB-I00 of the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation and European Regional Development Fund (ERDF). Romero D, is supported by the incorporation Doctor program of the University of Malaga, UMA-2022/REGSED-64576. Aliaga-Samanez, A was supported by a postdoctoral contract of the Plan Propio de Investigación, Transferencia y Divulgación Científica of the University of Malaga.
DS RIUMA. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad de Málaga
RD 25 ene 2026