RT Journal Article
T1 Predictive Performance Models in Long-Distance Runners: A Narrative Review
A1 Alvero-Cruz, José Ramón
A1 Álvarez-Carnero, Elvis
A1 Giráldez-García, Manuel Avelino
A1 Alacid, Fernando
A1 Correas-Gómez, Lorena
A1 Rosemann, Thomas
A1 Nikolaidis, Pantelis
A1 Knechtle, Beat
K1 Cuerpo humano - Composición
K1 Ejercicio físico - Aspectos fisiológicos
AB Physiological variables such as maximal oxygen uptake (VO2max), velocity at maximal oxygen uptake (vVO2max), running economy (RE) and changes in lactate levels are considered the main factors determining performance in long-distance races. The aim of this review was to present the mathematical models available in the literature to estimate performance in the 5000 m, 10,000 m, half-marathon and marathon events. Eighty-eight articles were identified, selections were made based on the inclusion criteria and the full text of the articles were obtained. The articles were reviewed and categorized according to demographic, anthropometric, exercise physiology and field test variables were also included by athletic specialty. A total of 58 studies were included, from 1983 to the present, distributed in the following categories: 12 in the 5000 m, 13 in the 10,000 m, 12 in the half-marathon and 21 in the marathon. A total of 136 independent variables associated with performance in long-distance races were considered, 43.4% of which pertained to variables derived from the evaluation of aerobic metabolism, 26.5% to variables associated with training load and 20.6% to anthropometric variables, body composition and somatotype components. The most closely associated variables in the prediction models for the half and full marathon specialties were the variables obtained from the laboratory tests (VO2max, vVO2max), training variables (training pace, training load) and anthropometric variables (fat mass, skinfolds). A large gap exists in predicting time in long-distance races, based on field tests. Physiological effort assessments are almost exclusive to shorter specialties (5000 m and 10,000 m). The predictor variables of the half-marathon are mainly anthropometric, but with moderate coefficients of determination. The variables of note in the marathon category are fundamentally those associated with training and those derived from physiological evaluation and anthropometric parameters.
PB MDPI
SN 1660-4601
YR 2020
FD 2020
LK https://hdl.handle.net/10630/45861
UL https://hdl.handle.net/10630/45861
LA eng
NO Alvero-Cruz JR, Carnero EA, García MAG, Alacid F, Correas-Gómez L, Rosemann T, Nikolaidis PT, Knechtle B. Predictive Performance Models in Long-Distance Runners: A Narrative Review. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2020 Nov 9;17(21):8289. doi: 10.3390/ijerph17218289. PMID: 33182485; PMCID: PMC7665126.
NO Grupo PAIDI CTS-132, Junta de Andalucía, España
NO Institute of Primary Care, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
DS RIUMA. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad de Málaga
RD 17 mar 2026