RT Journal Article
T1 Estimating how inflated or obscured effects of climate affect forecasted species distribution
A1 Real-Giménez, Raimundo
A1 Romero-Pacheco, David
A1 Olivero-Anarte, Jesús
A1 Estrada, Alba
A1 Márquez-Moya, Ana Luz
K1 Especies (Biología) - Factores climáticos - España
AB Climate is one of the main drivers of species distribution. However, as different environmental factors tend to co-vary, theeffect of climate cannot be taken at face value, as it may be either inflated or obscured by other correlated factors. We usedthe favourability models of four species (Alytes dickhilleni, Vipera latasti, Aquila fasciata and Capra pyrenaica) inhabitingSpanish mountains as case studies to evaluate the relative contribution of climate in their forecasted favourability by usingvariation partitioning and weighting the effect of climate in relation to non-climatic factors. By calculating the pure effect ofthe climatic factor, the pure effects of non-climatic factors, the shared climatic effect and the proportion of the pure effect ofthe climatic factor in relation to its apparent effect (r), we assessed the apparent effect and the pure independent effect ofclimate. We then projected both types of effects when modelling the future favourability for each species and combinationof AOGCM-SRES (two Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models: CGCM2 and ECHAM4, and two Special Reports onEmission Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B2). The results show that the apparent effect of climate can be either inflated (overrated)or obscured (underrated) by other correlated factors. These differences were species-specific; the sum of favourable areasforecasted according to the pure climatic effect differed from that forecasted according to the apparent climatic effect byabout 61% on average for one of the species analyzed, and by about 20% on average for each of the other species. The pureeffect of future climate on species distributions can only be estimated by combining climate with other factors. Transferringthe pure climatic effect and the apparent climatic effect to the future delimits the maximum and minimum favourable areasforecasted for each species in each climate change scenario.
PB Public Library of Science
SN 1932-6203 (Electronic)
YR 2013
FD 2013-01-11
LK http://hdl.handle.net/10630/7048
UL http://hdl.handle.net/10630/7048
LA eng
NO Real R, Romero D, Olivero J, Estrada A, Márquez AL (2013) Estimating How Inflated or Obscured Effects of Climate Affect Forecasted Species Distribution. PLoS ONE 8(1): e53646. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0053646
NO Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación and FEDER (project CGL2009-11316/BOS). D. Romero is a PhD student at the University of Malaga with a grant of the Ministerio de Educacio´n y Ciencia (AP 2007-03633)
DS RIUMA. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad de Málaga
RD 22 ene 2026