RT Journal Article
T1 Projecting Extinction Risk and Assessing Conservation Effectiveness for Three Threatened Relict Ferns in theWestern Mediterranean Basin
A1 Salvo-Tierra, Ángel Enrique
A1 Pereña-Ortiz, Jaime Francisco
A1 Ruiz-Valero, Ángel
K1 Helechos
AB Relict fern species, confined to microhabitats with stable historical conditions, are especiallyvulnerable to climate change. The Alboran Arc hosts a unique relict fern flora, includingCulcita macrocarpa, Diplazium caudatum, and Pteris incompleta, and functions as a majorPleistocene refuge. This study assesses the population trends and climate sensitivity ofthese species in Los Alcornocales Natural Park using annual abundance time series fora decade, empirical survival projections, and principal component analysis to identifykey climatic drivers. Results reveal distinct climate response clusters among populations,though intra-specific variation highlights the importance of local conditions. Climatechange is already impacting population viability, especially for P. incompleta, which showshigh sensitivity to rising maximum temperatures and prolonged heatwaves. Climate-drivenmodels forecast more severe declines than empirical ones, particularly for C. macrocarpa andP. incompleta, with the latter showing a projected collapse by the mid-century. In contrast,D. caudatum exhibits moderate vulnerability. Crucially, the divergence between modelsunderscores the impact of conservation efforts: without reinforcement and reintroductionactions, projected declines would likely be more severe. These results project a decline inthe populations of the studied ferns, highlighting the urgent need to continue implementingboth in situ and ex situ conservation measures.
PB MDPI
YR 2025
FD 2025-08
LK https://hdl.handle.net/10630/41186
UL https://hdl.handle.net/10630/41186
LA eng
NO Salvo-Tierra, Á.E.; Pereña-Ortiz, J.F.; Ruiz-Valero, Á. Projecting Extinction Risk and Assessing Conservation Effectiveness for Three Threatened Relict Ferns in the Western Mediterranean Basin. Plants 2025, 14, 2380. https://doi.org/10.3390/plants14152380
DS RIUMA. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad de Málaga
RD 25 ene 2026