RT Conference Proceedings
T1 Modelling sea level rise and extreme climatic events in Guadalquivir estuary (Spain).
A1 Moreno-Navas, Juan
A1 Pulido, Ángel
A1 Calero Quesada, María Concepción
A1 García, Rodrigo
A1 Delgado-Cabello, Javier
A1 García-Lafuente, Jesús
A1 García, Rodrigo
K1 Cambios climáticos
AB Sea level rise and extreme climatic events are predicted to increase in frequency and magnitude asa consequence of global warming but their socio-ecological effects are poorly understood. Theclimatic events are most likely to affect worldwide in forthcoming decades and a furtherunderstanding how these climatic and global warming disturbances drive changes in theGuadalquivir Estuary is needed.The Guadalquivir Estuary has been anthropologically modified throughout the last centuries. Now,there is no salt marshes, the river is bounded by embankments to protect rice and cottonplantations, the meanders have been transformed into straight channels and the Port of Seville, aspart of Europe’s strategic priority transport network, periodically dredge the main navigationchannel.A hydrodynamic model has been developed to hindcast a severe storm event that hit the estuary byconducting paired control and climate events. To simulate the effects of increased sea level themean tidal level in the model was raised. The changes in the local wind, atmospheric pressure andsea level conditions have been studied in detail and several scenarios are obtained by running themodel under control and real conditions.The model output has been validated with in situ water elevation and good agreement betweenmodelled and real measurements have been obtained. Our preliminary results show that the modeldemonstrated the capability of describe a tide-surge and future water levels rise in the estuary,opening the possibility to study the interaction between climatic events and global warming impactson port operations and food production activities.The hydrodynamic model provide spatially explicit information on the key variables governing thetide dynamics of estuarine areas under severe climatic and sea level rise scenarios and it will be apowerful tool in future climate change mitigation and adaptation programs.
YR 2018
FD 2018-10-01
LK https://hdl.handle.net/10630/16556
UL https://hdl.handle.net/10630/16556
LA eng
NO Universidad de Málaga. Campus de Excelencia Internacional Andalucía Tech.Autoridad Portuaria de Sevilla
DS RIUMA. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad de Málaga
RD 4 mar 2026