RT Journal Article
T1 Predicting the start, peak and end of the Betula pollen season in Bavaria, Germany
A1 Picornell Rodríguez, Antonio
A1 Buters, Jeroen
A1 Rojo, Jesús
A1 Traidl-Hoffmann, C.
A1 Damialis, A.
A1 Menzel, A.
A1 Bergmann, K.C.
A1 Werchan, M.
A1 Schmidt-Weber, C.
A1 Oteros, Jose
K1 Polen
AB Betula pollen is frequently found in the atmosphere of central and northern Europe. Betula pollen are health relevant as they cause severe allergic reactions in the population. We developed models of thermal requirements to predict start, peak and end dates of the Betula main pollen season for Bavaria (Germany). Betula pollen data of one season from 19 locations were used to train the models. Estimated dates were compared with observed dates, and the errors were spatially represented. External validation was carried out with time series datasets of 3 different locations (36 years in total). Results: The temperature requirements to detonate the main pollen season proved non-linear. For the start date model (error of 8,75 days during external validation), daily mean temperatures above a threshold of 10ºC from 28th of February onwards were the most relevant. The peak model (error of 3.58 days) takes into account mean daily temperatures accumulated since the first date of the main pollen season in which the daily average temperature exceeded 11ºC.  The end model (error of 3.75 days) takes into account all temperatures accumulated since the start of the main pollen season. Conclusion: These models perform predictions that enable the allergic population to better manage their disease. With the established relationship between temperatures and pollen season dates, changes in the phenological behaviour of Betula species due to climate change can be also estimated in future studies by taking into account the different climate scenarios proposed by previous climate change studies.
PB Elsevier
YR 2019
FD 2019-11-10
LK https://hdl.handle.net/10630/33856
UL https://hdl.handle.net/10630/33856
LA eng
NO Picornell, A., Buters, J., Rojo, J., Traidl-Hoffmann, C., Damialis, A., Menzel, A., Bergmann, K.C.C., Werchan, M., Schmidt-Weber, C., Oteros, J., 2019. Predicting the start, peak and end of the Betula pollen season in Bavaria, Germany. Science of The Total Environment 690, 1299–1309. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.SCITOTENV.2019.06.485
NO This publication was funded by the Bavarian State Ministry of Health and Care grant G47-G8180.1-2014/5-25 and the Bavarian State Ministry of the Environment and Consumer Protection grant TKP01KPB-69312 and TKP01KPB-73815. A. Picornell was supported by a predoctoral grant financed by the Ministry of Education, Culture and Sport of Spain, in the Program for the Promotion of Talent and its Employability (FPU15/01668). J. Oteros was supported by a Postdoctoral grant of Helmholtz Zentrum Munich PFP III 2018-2020.We acknowledge the E-OBS dataset for the EU-FP6 project ENSEMBLES (http://ensembles-eu.metoffice.com) and the data providers in the ECA&D project (http://www.ecad.eu).
DS RIUMA. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad de Málaga
RD 20 ene 2026