RT Journal Article
T1 Reducing the basic reproduction number of COVID‑19: a model simulation focused on QALYs, hospitalisation, productivity costs and optimal (soft) lockdown
A1 Robles‑Zurita, José Antonio
K1 COVID-19
AB Even if public health interventions are successful at reducing the spread of COVID-19, there is no guarantee that they willbring net benefits to the society because of the dynamic nature of the pandemic, e.g., the risk of a second outbreak if thoseinterventions are stopped too early, and the costs of a continued lockdown. In this analysis, a discrete-time dynamic modelis used to simulate the effect of reducing the effective reproduction number, driven by lockdowns ordered in March 2020 infour European countries (UK, France, Italy and Spain), on QALYs and hospitalisation costs. These benefits are valued inmonetary terms (€30,000 per QALY assumed) and compared to productivity costs due to reduced economic activity duringthe lockdown. An analysis of the optimal duration of lockdown is performed where a net benefit is maximised. The switchto a soft lockdown is analysed and compared to a continued lockdown or no intervention. Results vary for two assumptionsabout hospital capacity of the health system: (a) under unlimited capacity, average benefit ranges from 8.21 to 14.21% ofannual GDP, for UK and Spain, respectively; (b) under limited capacity, average benefits are higher than 30.32% of annualGDP in all countries. The simulation results imply that the benefits of lockdown are not substantial unless continued untilvaccination of high-risk groups is complete. It is illustrated that lockdown may not bring net benefits under some scenariosand a soft lockdown will be a more efficient alternative from mid-June 2020 only if the basic reproduction number is maintainedlow (not necessarily below 1) and productivity costs are sufficiently reduced.
PB Springer Nature
YR 2023
FD 2023
LK https://hdl.handle.net/10630/37229
UL https://hdl.handle.net/10630/37229
LA eng
NO Robles-Zurita, J. Reducing the basic reproduction number of COVID-19: a model simulation focused on QALYs, hospitalisation, productivity costs and optimal (soft) lockdown. Eur J Health Econ 24, 647–659 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10198-022-01500-7
DS RIUMA. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad de Málaga
RD 20 ene 2026