RT Journal Article
T1 Testing Tsunami Inundation Maps for Evacuation Planning in Italy
A1 Tonini, Roberto
A1 Di Manna, Pio
A1 Lorito, Stefano
A1 Selva, Jacopo
A1 Volpe, Manuela
A1 Romano, Fabrizio
A1 Basili, Roberto
A1 Brizuela, Beatriz
A1 Castro-Díaz, Manuel Jesús
A1 de la Asunción, Marc
A1 Di Bucci, Daniela
A1 Dolce, Mario
A1 Garcia, Alexander
A1 Gibbons, Steven
A1 Glimsdal, Sylfest
A1 González-Vida, José Manuel
A1 Lovholt, Finn
A1 Macías-Sánchez, Jorge
A1 Piatanesi, Alessi
A1 Pizzimenti, Luca
A1 Sánchez-Linares, Carlos
A1 Vittori, Eutizio
K1 Maremotos
AB Inundation maps are a fundamental tool for coastal risk management and in particular for designing evacuation maps and evacuation planning. These in turn are a necessary component of the tsunami warning systems’ last-mile. In Italy inundation maps are informed by a probabilistic tsunami hazard model. Based on a given level of acceptable risk, Italian authorities in charge for this task recommended to consider, as design hazard intensity, the average return period of 2500 years and the 84th percentile of the hazard model uncertainty. An available, regional-scale tsunami hazard model was used that covers the entire Italian coastline. Safety factors based on analysis of run-up variability and an empirical coastal dissipation law on a digital terrain model (DTM) were applied to convert the regional hazard into the design run-up and the corresponding evacuation maps with a GIS-based approach. Since the regional hazard cannot fully capture the local-scale variability, this simplified and conservative approach is considered a viable and feasible practice to inform local coastal risk management in the absence of high-resolution hazard models. The present work is a first attempt to quantify the uncertainty stemming from such procedure. We compare the GIS-based inundation maps informed by a regional model with those obtained from a local high-resolution hazard model. Two locations on the coast of eastern Sicily were considered, and the local hazard was addressed with the same seismic model as the regional one, but using a higher-resolution DTM and massive numerical inundation calculations with the GPU-based Tsunami-HySEA nonlinear shallow water code. This study shows that the GIS-based inundation maps used for planning deal conservatively with potential hazard underestimation at the local scale, stemming from typically unmodeled uncertainties in the numerical source and tsunami evolution models.
PB Frontiers
YR 2021
FD 2021-03-11
LK https://hdl.handle.net/10630/32966
UL https://hdl.handle.net/10630/32966
LA eng
NO Tonini R, Di Manna P, Lorito S, Selva J, Volpe M, Romano F, Basili R, Brizuela B, Castro MJ, de la Asunción M, Di Bucci D, Dolce M, Garcia A, Gibbons SJ, Glimsdal S, González-Vida JM, Løvholt F, Macías J, Piatanesi A, Pizzimenti L, Sánchez-Linares C and Vittori E (2021) Testing Tsunami Inundation Maps for Evacuation Planning in Italy. Front. Earth Sci. 9:628061
DS RIUMA. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad de Málaga
RD 20 ene 2026