2026-06-03T19:21:05Zhttps://riuma.uma.es/rest/oai/requestoai:riuma.uma.es:10630/302892026-02-03T10:52:42Zcom_10630_2254col_10630_37953
RIUMA. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad de Málaga
author
Torres-Signes, Antoni
author
Frías, María P.
author
Ruiz-Medina, María D.
2024-02-09T11:53:59Z
2024-02-09T11:53:59Z
2021-03-19
Torres–Signes, A., Frías, M.P. & Ruiz-Medina, M.D. COVID-19 mortality analysis from soft-data multivariate curve regression and machine learning. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 35, 2659–2678 (2021).
https://hdl.handle.net/10630/30289
10.1007/s00477-021-02021-0
A multiple objective space-time forecasting approach is presented involving cyclical curve log-regression, and multivariate time series spatial residual correlation analysis. Specifically, the mean quadratic loss function is minimized in the framework of trigonometric regression. While, in our subsequent spatial residual correlation analysis, maximization of the likelihood allows us to compute the posterior mode in a Bayesian multivariate time series soft-data framework. The presented approach is applied to the analysis of COVID-19 mortality in the first wave affecting the Spanish Communities, since March 8, 2020 until May 13, 2020. An empirical comparative study with Machine Learning (ML) regression, based on random k-fold cross-validation, and bootstrapping confidence interval and probability density estimation, is carried out. This empirical analysis also investigates the performance of ML regression models in a hard- and soft-data frameworks. The results could be extrapolated to other counts, countries, and posterior COVID-19 waves.
eng
COVID-19 - Mortalidad
Análisis de datos
COVID-19 mortality analysis from soft-data multivariate curve regression and machine learning.
journal article
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
URL
https://riuma.uma.es/bitstreams/bb0d4565-31c7-47d4-83ae-111c98406602/download
File
MD5
fbc50f19e8ca90c6984c0f972c75fe18
1447664
application/pdf
SERRA-2021B.pdf