2026-05-29T22:18:07Zhttps://riuma.uma.es/rest/oai/request

oai:riuma.uma.es:10630/328892026-02-03T11:07:42Zcom_10630_2254col_10630_37953

00925njm 22002777a 4500 dc Selva, Jacopo author Lorito, Stefano author Volpe, Manuela author Romano, Fabrizio author Tonini, Roberto author Perfetti, Paolo author Bernardi, Fabrizio author Taroni, Matteo author Scala, Antonio author Babeyko, Andrey author Lovholt, Finn author Gibbons, Steven author Macías, Jorge author Castro, Manuel Jesús author González-Vida, José Manuel author Sánchez-Linares, Carlos author Bayraktar, Hafize Basak author Basili, Roberto author Maesano, Francisco Emanuele author Tiberti, Mara author Mele, Francesco author Piatanesi, Alessandro author Amato, Alessandro author 2021-09-28 Tsunami warning centres face the challenging task of rapidly forecasting tsunami threat immediately after an earthquake, when there is high uncertainty due to data deficiency. Here we introduce Probabilistic Tsunami Forecasting (PTF) for tsunami early warning. PTF expli- citly treats data- and forecast-uncertainties, enabling alert level definitions according to any predefined level of conservatism, which is connected to the average balance of missed-vs- false-alarms. Impact forecasts and resulting recommendations become progressively less uncertain as new data become available. Here we report an implementation for near-source early warning and test it systematically by hindcasting the great 2010 M8.8 Maule (Chile) and the well-studied 2003 M6.8 Zemmouri-Boumerdes (Algeria) tsunamis, as well as all the Mediterranean earthquakes that triggered alert messages at the Italian Tsunami Warning Centre since its inception in 2015, demonstrating forecasting accuracy over a wide range of magnitudes and earthquake types. Selva, J., Lorito, S., Volpe, M. et al. Probabilistic tsunami forecasting for early warning. Nat Commun 12, 5677 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-25815-w https://hdl.handle.net/10630/32889 10.1038/s41467-021-25815-w Maremotos Probabilistic tsunami forecasting for early warning