2026-05-27T05:34:12Zhttps://riuma.uma.es/rest/oai/requestoai:riuma.uma.es:10630/457212026-02-25T00:47:59Zcom_10630_2254col_10630_37953
RIUMA. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad de Málaga
author
Vargas Molina, Sebastián Alejandro
author
Sortino-Barrionuevo, Juan Francisco
author
Perles-Roselló, María Jesús
2026-02-24T13:44:21Z
2025-01-23
Vargas Molina Sebastián Alejandro, Barrionuevo Juan Francisco Sortino, Perles Roselló María Jesús. Effect of urban structure, population density and proximity to contagion on COVID-19 infections during the SARS-CoV-2 Alpha and Omicron waves in Málaga, Spain, March 2020 to December 2021. Euro Surveill. 2025;30(3):pii=2400174. https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2025.30.3.2400174
https://hdl.handle.net/10630/45721
10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2025.30.3.2400174
BackgroundThe potential impact of urban structure, as population density and proximity to essential facilities, on spatial variability of infectious disease cases remains underexplored.AimTo analyse the spatial variation of COVID-19 case intensity in relation to population density and distance from urban facilities (as potential contagion hubs), by comparing Alpha and Omicron wave data representing periods of both enacted and lifted non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in Málaga.MethodsUsing spatial point pattern analysis, we examined COVID-19 cases in relation to population density, distance from hospitals, health centres, schools, markets, shopping malls, sports centres and nursing homes by non-parametric estimation of relative intensity dependence on these covariates. For statistical significance and effect size, we performed Berman Z1 tests and Areas Under Curves (AUC) for Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves.ResultsAfter accounting for population density, relative intensity of COVID-19 remained consistent in relation to distance from urban facilities across waves. Although non-parametric estimations of the relative intensity of cases showed fluctuations with distance from facilities, Berman's Z1 tests were significant for health centres only (p < 0.032) when compared with complete spatial randomness. The AUC of ROC curves for population density was above 0.75 and ca 0.6 for all urban facilities.ConclusionResults reflect the difficulty in assessing facilities' effect in propagating infectious disease, particularly in compact cities. Lack of evidence directly linking higher case intensity to proximity to urban facilities shows the need to clarify the role of urban structure and planning in shaping the spatial distribution of epidemics within cities.
eng
Attribution 4.0 International
Pandemia de la COVID-19, 2020-2023
Effect of urban structure, population density and proximity to contagion on COVID-19 infections during the SARS-CoV-2 Alpha and Omicron waves in Málaga, Spain, March 2020 to December 2021
journal article
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