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oai:riuma.uma.es:10630/70482026-02-03T11:26:48Zcom_10630_2254col_10630_37953

Estimating how inflated or obscured effects of climate affect forecasted species distribution Real-Giménez, Raimundo Romero-Pacheco, David Olivero-Anarte, Jesús Estrada, Alba Márquez-Moya, Ana Luz Especies (Biología) - Factores climáticos - España Climate is one of the main drivers of species distribution. However, as different environmental factors tend to co-vary, the effect of climate cannot be taken at face value, as it may be either inflated or obscured by other correlated factors. We used the favourability models of four species (Alytes dickhilleni, Vipera latasti, Aquila fasciata and Capra pyrenaica) inhabiting Spanish mountains as case studies to evaluate the relative contribution of climate in their forecasted favourability by using variation partitioning and weighting the effect of climate in relation to non-climatic factors. By calculating the pure effect of the climatic factor, the pure effects of non-climatic factors, the shared climatic effect and the proportion of the pure effect of the climatic factor in relation to its apparent effect (r), we assessed the apparent effect and the pure independent effect of climate. We then projected both types of effects when modelling the future favourability for each species and combination of AOGCM-SRES (two Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models: CGCM2 and ECHAM4, and two Special Reports on Emission Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B2). The results show that the apparent effect of climate can be either inflated (overrated) or obscured (underrated) by other correlated factors. These differences were species-specific; the sum of favourable areas forecasted according to the pure climatic effect differed from that forecasted according to the apparent climatic effect by about 61% on average for one of the species analyzed, and by about 20% on average for each of the other species. The pure effect of future climate on species distributions can only be estimated by combining climate with other factors. Transferring the pure climatic effect and the apparent climatic effect to the future delimits the maximum and minimum favourable areas forecasted for each species in each climate change scenario. 2014-02-12T08:20:07Z 2014-02-12T08:20:07Z 2014-02-12T08:20:07Z 2013-01-11 journal article Real R, Romero D, Olivero J, Estrada A, Márquez AL (2013) Estimating How Inflated or Obscured Effects of Climate Affect Forecasted Species Distribution. PLoS ONE 8(1): e53646. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0053646 1932-6203 (Electronic) http://hdl.handle.net/10630/7048 10.1371/journal.pone.0053646 eng PLoS ONE 8(1);e53646 open access Public Library of Science