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oai:riuma.uma.es:10630/70512026-02-03T11:18:33Zcom_10630_2254col_10630_37953

Updating known distribution models for forecasting climate change impact on endangered species Muñoz-Gallego, Antonio Román Márquez-Moya, Ana Luz Real-Giménez, Raimundo Animales en vías de extinción - Factores climáticos Extinción (Biología) - Factores climáticos To plan endangered species conservation and to design adequate management programmes, it is necessary to predict their distributional response to climate change, especially under the current situation of rapid change. However, these predictions are customarily done by relating de novo the distribution of the species with climatic conditions with no regard of previously available knowledge about the factors affecting the species distribution. We propose to take advantage of known species distribution models, but proceeding to update them with the variables yielded by climatic models before projecting them to the future. To exemplify our proposal, the availability of suitable habitat across Spain for the endangered Bonelli’s Eagle (Aquila fasciata) was modelled by updating a pre-existing model based on current climate and topography to a combination of different general circulation models and Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Our results suggested that the main threat for this endangered species would not be climate change, since all forecasting models show that its distribution will be maintained and increased in mainland Spain for all the XXI century. We remark on the importance of linking conservation biology with distribution modelling by updating existing models, frequently available for endangered species, considering all the known factors conditioning the species’ distribution, instead of building new models that are based on climate change variables only. 2014-02-12T08:29:29Z 2014-02-12T08:29:29Z 2014-02-12T08:29:29Z 2013-06-28 journal article Muñoz A-R, Márquez AL, Real R (2013) Updating Known Distribution Models for Forecasting Climate Change Impact on Endangered Species. PLoS ONE 8(6): e65462. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0065462 1932-6203 (Electronic) http://hdl.handle.net/10630/7051 eng PLOS ONE 8(6);e65462 open access San Francisco, CA : Public Library of Science