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Listar por autor "Thurner, Paul W."
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Die Schätzung von Wählerwanderungen zwischen den Bundestagswahlen 2013–2017 mithilfe von Online-Paneldaten und Aggregatdaten in Hybridmodellen
Thurner, Paul W.; Kunz, Fiona; Miclut, Andrea; Mauerer, Ingrid Doris; Klima, André; Küchenhoff, Helmut[et al.] (Springer, 2021-10)Die elektorale Volatilität zwischen den Bundestagswahlen (BTW) 2013 und 2017 ist die höchste seit 1953 (vgl. Emanuele 2015). Gerade bei so außergewöhnlichen Dynamiken, die zudem zu strukturellen Veränderungen von ... -
Die Universitätsstudie Bayernwahl 2018 (USBW18): Design und ermittelte Wählerwanderungen.
Thurner, Paul W.; Küchenhoff, Helmut; Walter-Rogg, Melanie; Heinrich, Tassilo; Klima, André; Knieper, Thomas; Haupt, Harry; Mauerer, Ingrid Doris; Mang, Stefan; Schnurbus, Joachim[et al.] (Springer Nature, 2023-08)Die bayerische Landtagswahl 2018 war durch ein hohes Maß an Wählervolatilität geprägt. Jedoch konnte nicht nur die AfD Stimmen hinzugewinnen, auch den Grünen ist es gelungen, 2018 Wähler anderer Parteien für sich zu gewinnen. ... -
Integrating Large-Scale Online Surveys and Aggregate Data at the Constituency Level: The Estimation of Voter Transitions in the 2015 British General Elections.
Thurner, Paul W.; Mauerer, Ingrid Doris; Bort, Maxim; Klima, André; Küchenhoff, Helmut (European Survey Research Association, 2020-09-25)What have been the underlying voter shifts that led to the victory of the Con-servative Party in the 2015 British general election – against all predictions bypollsters? Analyses of voter transitions based on (online) ... -
Micromotives of Vote Switchers and Macrotransitions: The Case of the Immigration Issue in a Regional Earthquake Election in Germany 2018
Thurner, Paul W.; Klima, André; Küchenhoff, Helmut; Mauerer, Ingrid Doris; Mang, Stefan; Walter-Rogg, Melanie; Knieper, Thomas; Schnurbus, Joachim[et al.] (Springer, 2022-07-26)Which issue-related motives underlie voters’ decision to switch parties at the polls? Do switchers stick to the newly chosen party, or do they oscillate in a short-term way at intermediate elections? Relying on the behavioral ... -
Modeling Electoral Choices in Multiparty Systems with High-Dimensional Data: A Regularized Selection of Parameters Using the Lasso Approach.
Mauerer, Ingrid Doris; Pößnecker, Wolfgang; Thurner, Paul W.; Tutz, Gerhard (Elsevier, 2015-10-06)The increased usage of discrete choice models in the analysis of multiparty elections faces one severe challenge: the proliferation of parameters, resulting in high-dimensional and difficult-to-interpret models. For example, ... -
Under Which Conditions Do Parties Attract Voters’ Reactions to Issues? Party-Varying Issue Voting in German Elections 1987-2009
Mauerer, Ingrid Doris; Thurner, Paul W.; Debus, Marc (Taylor & Francis, 2015-04-24)Are voters’ choices influenced by parties’ position-taking and communication efforts on issues during a campaign? And if so, do voters’ reactions to issues differ across parties? This article outlines a research design for ...