After the annexation of Crimea in 2014, many EU–Russia projects such as the concept
of Strategic Partnerships, negotiations on the New Basic Agreement, and the abolishment of visa
regime, among other important issues, were suspended. On top of that, the parties involved imposed
mutual sanctions which seriously damaged bilateral trade relationships. The present article aims to
analyse EU–Russia bilateral trade under the sanctions and low oil prices together with such factors
as the growth of Russian and the EU’s GDPs per capita, geographical distance between parties and
devaluation of Russian currency by applying a gravity model. Moreover, the model allows us to
carry out simulations of circumstances as they would likely have unfolded had the sanctions not
been imposed and if oil prices had remained at a reasonable level.
