This study aims to highlight the importance of accurately estimating methane emissions, one of the most
dangerous and important greenhouse gases in the context of climate change. By incorporating methane
emissions as a variable within the integrated assessment model DICE (Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy
model), we investigate how these emissions influence temperature changes and subsequently impact economic
policies, including climate economic policies, carbon pricing, and non-price factors. We use the existing DICE-
2020 and DICE-2023 models as references for our analysis. In addition to industrial emissions that can be
detected through satellite observations, we address the challenge of estimating natural emissions from wetlands
and permafrost, which leak gradually and are difficult to detect. By considering these emissions, we account for
their exogenous nature and their divergence from the current situation. Our study reveals that incorporating
methane emissions into the DICE model has significant implications for global temperature outcomes and
subsequent policy changes. We find that by implementing existing methane reduction policies, which includes
cutting the level of methane emissions in half and increase the carbon price in 4 times to 500 USD per ton,
it is possible to achieve the more ambitious goal of limiting the global temperature increase to 1.5 ◦C by
2100 in an optimistic scenario instead of the common target of 2 ◦C. More pessimistic scenarios that do
not imply big change in methane emissions, but the same numerical data for carbon price, still suggests the
possibility of keeping the global temperature below 2 ◦C.
