Biological invasions are major threats to ecosystems and global economies, often exacerbated by human activities, such as trade and tourism. Myiopsitta monachus (Monk Parakeet), native to South America, is an example of an exotic species that has established populations across North America, Europe, and other regions. This study presents a model predicting the global distribution of M. monachus, focusing on areas at risk of future establishment. Using 25 climatic, topographic, and anthropogenic variables along with occurrence data from eBird (2000–2023), we conducted a multivariate logistic regression to create a favorability model, with 10 variables emerging as key predictors. The model showed high discrimination capacity (AUC > 0.856) and identified areas such as New Zealand, southern Queensland and New South Wales in Australia, Bangladesh, Peninsular Malaysia, South Africa, the coasts of the Arabian Peninsula, parts of Europe, including Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Ireland, and Bulgaria, as particularly vulnerable. In the Americas, the coastal regions of Ecuador and northern Peru, northern Colombia and Venezuela, as well as most of Central America, exhibit particularly favorable conditions. Similarly, the islands of Cuba, Jamaica, and Hispaniola, along with vast areas of Mexico and the United States, present a high potential for establishment. We emphasize the need for proactive monitoring in these areas to prevent both new arrivals through international trade and potential invasions. Additionally, countries where M. monachus populations are still relatively small, such as Morocco, those in Central Europe, and the United Kingdom, should implement control strategies to prevent future spread. Our research highlights the importance of species distribution models in forecasting invasive spread, aiding early detection and prevention efforts. These actions are crucial for safeguarding biodiversity and reducing economic losses.
