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dc.contributor.authorReal, Raimundo 
dc.contributor.authorRomero, David
dc.contributor.authorOlivero, Jesús
dc.contributor.authorEstrada, Alba
dc.contributor.authorMárquez, Ana L.
dc.date.accessioned2014-02-12T08:20:07Z
dc.date.available2014-02-12T08:20:07Z
dc.date.issued2013-01-11
dc.identifier.citationReal R, Romero D, Olivero J, Estrada A, Márquez AL (2013) Estimating How Inflated or Obscured Effects of Climate Affect Forecasted Species Distribution. PLoS ONE 8(1): e53646. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0053646es_ES
dc.identifier.issn1932-6203 (Electronic)
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10630/7048
dc.description.abstractClimate is one of the main drivers of species distribution. However, as different environmental factors tend to co-vary, the effect of climate cannot be taken at face value, as it may be either inflated or obscured by other correlated factors. We used the favourability models of four species (Alytes dickhilleni, Vipera latasti, Aquila fasciata and Capra pyrenaica) inhabiting Spanish mountains as case studies to evaluate the relative contribution of climate in their forecasted favourability by using variation partitioning and weighting the effect of climate in relation to non-climatic factors. By calculating the pure effect of the climatic factor, the pure effects of non-climatic factors, the shared climatic effect and the proportion of the pure effect of the climatic factor in relation to its apparent effect (r), we assessed the apparent effect and the pure independent effect of climate. We then projected both types of effects when modelling the future favourability for each species and combination of AOGCM-SRES (two Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models: CGCM2 and ECHAM4, and two Special Reports on Emission Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B2). The results show that the apparent effect of climate can be either inflated (overrated) or obscured (underrated) by other correlated factors. These differences were species-specific; the sum of favourable areas forecasted according to the pure climatic effect differed from that forecasted according to the apparent climatic effect by about 61% on average for one of the species analyzed, and by about 20% on average for each of the other species. The pure effect of future climate on species distributions can only be estimated by combining climate with other factors. Transferring the pure climatic effect and the apparent climatic effect to the future delimits the maximum and minimum favourable areas forecasted for each species in each climate change scenario.es_ES
dc.description.sponsorshipMinisterio de Ciencia e Innovación and FEDER (project CGL2009-11316/BOS). D. Romero is a PhD student at the University of Malaga with a grant of the Ministerio de Educacio´n y Ciencia (AP 2007-03633)es_ES
dc.language.isoenges_ES
dc.publisherSan Francisco, CA : Public Library of Sciencees_ES
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPLoS ONE 8(1);e53646
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.subjectEspecies (Biología) - Factores climáticos - Españaes_ES
dc.titleEstimating how inflated or obscured effects of climate affect forecasted species distributiones_ES
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlees_ES
dc.centroFacultad de Cienciases_ES


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